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贸易战正式打响!美棉进口优势不再,谁将上位我国棉花市场?

新闻来源:   添加时间:2019-07-30 16:43:53

7yue6ri,meiguozhengshidui340yimeiyuanzhongguochanpinjiazheng25%guanshui。meiguoweifanshimaoguize,fadongleqijinrenleijingjishishangguimozuidadeyicimaoyizhan。

zhongfanglikezhankaifanji。zhongguoshangwubufayanrenfabiaotanhuashuo,zhongfangchengnuobudadiyiqiang,danweilehanweiguojiahexinliyiherenminqunzhongliyi,budebubeipozuochubiyaofanji。cicifanjiyoujidatedian:

特点1:中国不打第一枪,反击自动触发

ciqianyouwaimeicaice,zhongmeicunzai12xiaoshishicha,zhongfangkenengxianfazhiren,tiqian12xiaoshiduimeiguoshangpinjiazhengguanshui。danzhongfangzhengzhongchengqing,zhongfangjuebudadiyiqiang。zhongguobushizhudongtiaoxinyifang,womenjueduibujiqitaguojiarenhekoushi。danweilehanweiguojiahexinliyiherenminqunzhongliyi,zhongguobudebuzuochubiyaofanji。zhongfangfanzhicuoshijikeshengxiao。jishishuo,meiguokaishijiazhengguanshui,zidongchufalezhongfangdefanji。

特点2:反击同等规模同等力度,中国毫不手软

anzhaomeifanggongbudexinxi,zheiyicimiaozhundeshizhongguo500yimeiyuanshangpin,7yue6riduiqizhongyue340yimeiyuanjiazhengguanshui;zhongfangdefanji,yeshi340yimeiyuan。ciwai,meiguozheicishedingdeshuilvshi25%;zhongguoyeshi25%shuilv。

特点3:数量型和质量型结合,更注重杀伤力

meiguoxuanchengjiangduiewaiyue5000yimeiyuanzhongguoshangpinzhengshui,danmeiguochukouzhongguodeshangpinyejiu1000duoyimeiyuan。xiayibuzenmeban?jiushicaiqubaokuoshuliangxinggongjuhezhiliangxinggongjuzaineidezonghejucuo。zheicidecezhongdianyingshitongdengguimotongdenglidu,danruguomeiguojixukuodazhanchang,neiwomenjiangshenshidushi,gengzhuzhongfanjidezhiliangheshashangli。yaozhidao,meiguozaihualiyi,bujinzhiyouchukou。

特点4:这不是中国一个国家在战斗

shangwubufayanrenciqianjiushuo,womenxiangxin,“dedaoduozhu,shidaoguazhu”,geguorenminduizhongfangdetaidushilijiehezhichide。zhongguozheicibeipohaiji,weihuhehanweide,bujinjinshizhongguoliyi,yeshishijierenmingongtongliyi。meiguodejudongnilishichaoliu,yanzhongweihaiquanqiuchanyelianhejiazhiliananquan,daliangwuguqiye、minzhongbeipojuanru、shenshouqihai。zhongguozhanzaidaoyizhigaodianshang,bidinghuidedaogengduoguojiazhichi。

(yishangneirongzhaizirenminribaoweixingonghao)

fangzhiyemaoyimocayishengyingxiang。6yue15ri,meiguoxuanbudui340yimeiyuanzhongguochanpinjiazhengguanshui;6yue16ri,guowuyuanjuedingduiyuanchanyumeiguode659xiangyue500yimeiyuanshangpinjiazheng25%guanshui,qizhongnongchanpindengyue340yimeiyuanshangpinzi2018nian7yue6rizhixing,baohanweishudemianhuahemianduanrong。zaozaineishixiaoxiyichumianjiajiuyinqidongdang,bushaomaoyishangyezhuanerguanzhujuyouxingjiabideyindumian。

muqianmianhuadegongxujibenmianruhe?zaimaoyizhanbeijingxia,shishangchukou“kuaichedao”deyindumiannengfoudaitimeimian,qiangzhanzhongguoshichangdemeimianfeneni?

zi2016niandaguimopaochuyilai,guochumiankucunyicong1114wandunzuoyouxiajiangdaojinqide390wandun,yujijinnianpaochujieshuhou,guochumianshuliangjiangjiangzhi250wan~300wandunzuoyou,dadaoleanquankucundebianjie。yujijinru2019nianzhihou,guochumianjiangbuzaijinxingjingtoufang,erjiangyilunruweizhu。xiangyingde,weilemanzuchanxuquekou,woguojiangtongguojinkoumianhualaibuchongyongliang。qianduanshijianguojiafagaiweizengjia80wandunhuazhunshuipeiezhengceyezhengshizaicibeijingxiasuoshishide。conggongxupinghengdejiaodulaikan,weilaiwoguotongguojinkou300wandunmianhuabuchongguoneiquekoujiangyouwangchengweichangtai。erbenrenweiweilaihuitianbuwoguoyongmianquekoudemeimian,quesuizhezhongmeimaoyimocashengjierchongmanlebuquedingxing。

中美贸易战加剧  印度棉快速抢单

jutongji,zhongguo2017nianjinkoumianhua115wandun,qizhong50.53wandunlaiziyumeiguo,zhanbida44%。jiazhengguanshuixiaoxiyichu,mianhuashichangjiagesuijifashengledongdang。suizhemaoyizhanjiaju,mianhuajiagetixiyejiangchuxianbianhua。

zuimingxiandeshiguanshuiduijinkoumiandezhijieyingxiang,zaitigaoguanshuihou,peieneijinkoumeimiandeshuilvjiangcong1%shengzhi26%,duiyingdejinkouchengbenjiangzhijietigao3500yuan/dunyishang。yinci,guanshuiduimianhuajinkouchengbendetishengshixianeryijiande。zheizhongqingkuangxia,jinkoumeimianxianranbuhuasuan,yincibushaofangqiyumaoyishangbamuguangzhuanyidaoleyindumianshenshang。

juyindumianhuaxiehuitoulu,yinduyitongzhongguoqiandingle50wanbaoxinmianchukoudingdan,zheizhongtiqiansuodinghuoyuandezuofafeichanghanjian。yindumoumianhuachukoushangyetouludao,jinqigongsijiedaoxuduolaizizhongguoduixianianduyindumiandexunjia,6yuechuyijinghezhongguoqiandinglejinnian11~12yuezhuangyundemianhuachukoudingdan。haiyouyixieguojimianshang、yinduchukouqiyefanying,suizhezhongmeimaoyizhengduanshengji,yindumianchukoushishang“kuaichedao”,shouzhongguozengfamianhuajinkoupeiedelihao,muqianzhongguomianhuajinkoushangduiguojishichanggaozhiliangdemianhuacaigouxingqunonghou,youqishigaopinzhis-6、mcu5、j34shoudaobufenzhongguodazhongxingfangqiguanzhuheqinglai。

yindumianhuaxiehui、touzijigou、shemianqiyerenwei,shouzhongmeimaoyizhengduanjiajudeyingxiang,zhongguomianhuajinkoujiangbeipoxunzhaoqitapinzhongdaitimeimian,yindumianhuachukoudingdanjianghuijizeng,2018/2019nianduyinduduizhongguodemianhuachukouliangkenengmengzengzhi500wanbao,yuewei85wandun,jiao2017/2018niandufanwubei。zaizhongguojiazhengmeimianjinkouguanshuideqiantixia,yindumianjiangyoujihuizaizhongguozhanjugengdadeshichangfene,chengweizhongguofangqi、maoyishangbuchongmianhuaziyuandebuerzhixuan。

duici,youyeneirenshifenxi,jifayindumianduanqidamaideyuanyinchulezhongmeimaoyizhandeyingxiang,haiyouyixia3dian:yishi6yue14riwoguozhengfuzengfale80wandunhuazhunguanshuimianhuajinkoupeie,quanbuweifeiguoyingmaoyipeie,qiyeduiwaimianjinkoudezhudongquan、juedingquanyousuotigao;ershi5yuezhongxun~6yuezhongxun,icemianhuaqihuoyinlingmeimian、aomian、baximian、feizhoumiandengxianhuojiagedazhangshangzhang,yindumiandexingjiabiyoushibijiaotuchu;shujuxianshi,7yue2ri,jinkoumianbaojiaxiaofushangzhang,qizhong,meiguoe/motmiandetihuojiawei15436.87yuan/dun,aomiantihuojiawei16651.77yuan/dun,yindumiandetihuojiawei14769.31yuan/dun。sanshijinqiyindulubidafubianzhi,woguoqiyejinkouchengbenxiahua;zaijiashangyindumianxiangduiyumeimian、aomian、feizhoumiandengjuyouyunshujuliduan、yunfeidi、jiaohuokuaiyoushi,yinciduizhongguochukouchengxianduanzan“jingpen”qushi。

我国棉花供求存变数  印度棉出口不容乐观

rujin,yindumianjinkouchengxianzengzhangqushizaiyeneisuiyidachenggongshi,danzengzhangduoshao、zengzhangduojiuchuleshouzhongmeiyinsuyingxiangwaihaishouxuduoyinsuyingxiang,yindumianchukoubukemangmuleguan。

业内人士认为,首先是2018/2019年度印度棉可供出口的数量。从印度棉花协会、USDA等各方反馈来看,2018年印度棉种植面积将下滑10%~13%,加上西南季风推迟到来,2018/2019年度印度棉产量并不乐观;再加上近几年印度国内对高品质、高等级、高一致性棉花消费需求迅猛增长,可供出口的S-6、MCU、J34或不足100万吨,USDA预测2018/2019年度印度棉产量、出口量分别为620.5万吨、92.5万吨,如果85万吨棉花出口至中国,那么孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、土耳其等国纱厂的原料问题又该如何解决?

qici,yindumianjiashifoujuyouzugoudejingzhengli。zhongmeimaoyimocashengjirangyindumianduizhongguochukoudejihuidazeng,dantongyangyejilefeizhoumian、baximian、aomian、zhongyamiandengqiangzhanmeimianshichangfenedeshiji,ruguobucankaoice,dulidingjiadeyindumiancnf、fobbaojiaxiangjiaoqitachandimianhuameiyourenheyoushishenzhixingchengdaoguadehua,kongpazhongguomaijiayeyaoshenzhongxiadan。ru6yue20riyilai,ice、waimianxianhuojiagedafuxiacuo,yindumianjiajinxiangzhengxinghuidiao,xingjiabimingxianxiahua。

zaici,2018/2019nianduwoguomianhuagongjishichangcunzaibianshu。yifangmian,2018/2019niandu,guoneimianhuachanliangnengfoudadao600wan~620wandun,jiangjuedingduijinkoumianhuadeyilaichengdu;lingyifangmian,suizhewoguofangqidezhuanxingshengji,fangqijiangzhongdiancaigougaopinzhi、gaokefangxingdewaimian,yindukegongchukoupimianzhongyouyouduodabilifuhefangqixuyao?

moukuaguogongsizhujingjiaoyishangjiucengbiaoshi,zhongguohuishouxiancaigoujicai、wuwurandeaomianhebaximianlaiqudaimeimian,zhihoucaihuikaolvyindumian,yinweiyindumianhanzalvgao。danruguomeiyouqitadexuanze,zhongguoyehuiduohuaqianlaichulimianhua,yinweijishijiashangzheibichengben,yebiewaizhifu25%dejinkouguanshuigoumaimeimianyaohuasuan。

suoyizonghelaikan,xianzaishuoyindumiannenggoudaitimeimian,qiangzhanzhongguoshichangdemeimianfenehaiweishiguozao,yindumianchukouyebukemangmuleguan。tuiyibujiang,zhongmeimaoyizhengduanshiyichang“chijiuzhan”,guanshuizhengcerengcunzaijiaodabianshu,duiyufangzhiqiyelaishuo,yinggailixingkandaishichangbodong,zaimianjiachuyudiweishijinxingzhanlvexingbuku,yibaozhengzhengchangshengchan。


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